The current war in Iran show that oil is still a very important asset. However the future will be more and more towards rare metals. This is a more and more important factor and the impact in the future will be as well. With the growing of new technologies and artificial intelligence these metals will be major in future rivalries… if mankind doesn’t disappear before of artificial intelligence.
The price of raw materials plummeted during the war in Iran. It shows that the influence of oil is still detrimental. However in the future rare metals are likely to replace this asset. The fact Trump wants to get Groenland is not by chance ; if his authoritarism can be criticized, his sense of prospective should alert the Europeans who didn’t take into consideration the great potential of this place in the coming years. No European country made a speech, a real investment plan… to exploit this strategic asset while the Americans, the Chinese and the Russians position themselves to exploit the best possible this region.
Also the war in Iran show that the United States want to close a page that opened with the Irani revolution in 1979. At this time it was not really seen as a bad thing the Islamic ideas were risen to counter the communist influence. The first opponent was the USSR and the war in Afghanistan was seen as a revenge on Vietnam war. The United States are today facing a new great rival, China, and the alliance with Russia and Iran was seen as a threat for the United States. This war is an occasion for them to counter the influence of China in the region. China, on the other hand, is playing a two tier game : at the same time the communist party is not unhappy to put out an Islamic state and at the same time it wants to keep a great influence in the region, moreover with a great state as Iran which is the only country, whatever the regime or the constitution it has today or will have later, which is now able to rival Israel in the Middle East. But this war is also linked to the influence of oil and rare metals. As oil will be less and less strategic in the future, the United States and China want a more stable Middle East, which will make them concentrate first in rare metals but keeping an eye in the Middle East, because oil will be important as well. It is the reason why the war in Iran is symbolical not only politically, but economically.
As the dematerialization of the economy is accelerating, tangible asset like oil will have their relative influence decrease. Actually it is in the line of the history of capitalism, which has been more and more movable. Modern capitalism was similar to the development of cities, businesses and modern finance which prevailed over the feudal economy which was immovable. With the new technologies dematerialization is pursuing the movable economy process. The United States and China know very well that the competition will continue on artificial intelligence, data or rare metals. Both of them want to remap the Middle East compliant to their new rivalry and to the evolution of the economy.
New opportunities can also be open to alternative capitalism thanks to raw materials. For instance if their production can be detrimental to the environment, metals like copper can benefit to electric cars for instance. Environmental activits have a new major theme to deal with concerning the rare metals and raw materials overall. They will have to at the same time fight the abuses in the production phase and also exploit the best possible the opportunities these metals can offer.
It is the reason why the XXIst century will witness a shift of strategic assets from oil to raw material, for instance rare metals. As Groenland is becoming the new Saudi Arabia it is more and more necessary to consider this transition in innovation and economics. The impact on financial markets will be also important in the future, both in values and in the importance of raw materials for the evolution of the markets. This evolution is at the same time impressive and in the line of what always happened in capitalism from the Renaissance.
The observer 