The OCS which is the meeting between countries allies of Russia and China, including these two countries, is showing a real turning point. It is showing a turning point to the extend it wants to frame an alternative to globalization. To this extend it looks necessary to have a look at the situation which is resulting from this entity, as the cold war with the Western world is continuing.
China looks to be the real dominant power concerning this entity. First it is noticeable to observe that this country is so dominant economically and militarily that Russia cannot weight much comparted to his counterpart. As Russia is stuck in the war in Ukraine, that the United States and China want to last as long as possible, it is more and more dependent on China. Raw material can be bought at a very low price, and at the same time the Chinese are making an implicit competition between Russia and Iran to sell oil at the most advantageous price possible. It looks obvious that China is not the best ally for Russia, as it is advancing compliant to its long term interests.
Concerning the Western world, China is today in an uncertain situation. The Silk Road decided by Xi Jinping looks to be a real failure. Many countries in the world don’t trust China anymore concerning its trade policies, and it is a real concern for them in their fight for supremacy against the Western world. However, in some sector, their advance is worrying for the West. For instance in the electric cars, they threaten the supremacy of the Europeans and the Americans. Many German industries feel threatened by the Chinese advance in electric cars, with millions of jobs at stake. To this extend the economic war with the Europeans is a unique occasion for Europe to renew itself, redefine its strategy concerning the economy, its defense and creating a real force in itself. However divisions are too important today, and they are well exploited by China, who is investing a lot in Hungrary for instance.
If the Cold War is not over, the American supremacy concerning soft power is very important. It is a real success of the Biden administration, who built an efficient coalition to circle China. The QUAD is an example of it and is making China more and more isolated. To the same extend the move of value channel to other countries than China, for instance in India, South East Asia or Mexico is an example of success of the Biden administration. The fact Trump may be reelected is threatening these successes. Isolationism is not the solution in my opinion, as today and in the long run the United States cannot lead the world alone and is not the hyperpower it used to be. This period of history is over. The demography is advantageous to China and more broadly to Asian countries. If the Western world can be an important force in this new area, it is not the only dominant force. The United States and Europe have to accept it and build a better future which is taking into account these evolutions.
The observer 