Inflation is traditionally leading to unemployment. In fact it has been fought by the Germans, with what happened in 1929. To this extend it is possible to say that inflation is a shared fear in European countries.
Things have changed anyway. Today the United States is the first producer of oil in the world (the first exportator is Saudi Arabia anyway). Europe is dependent on the USA, while it was dependent of Russia. This situation is pregnant in Germany, who built its growth with exportation of cars and high technology devices to China and the supply of energy from Russia. Europe is facing real problems to this extend. In fact Europe has not build a long run strategy to build an independent energy policy, and is not preparing to position itself enough to master the technologies of the future. For instance the question of the data is revealing : while China, but also countries like the Emirates (who are preparing a transition from oil supplying country to a place supplying high technology devices) are preparing the next IT evolutions, we should invest more on such technologies. The 2030 investment plan of Emmanuel Macron is going to this path, but the quantity of investments doesn’t look to be enough.
However the world is today going back to Keynesian approaches. After 40 years dominated by the neo liberal ideology, it looks that western states are going back to massive investment in strategic industries. The inflation reduction act of Biden has two long term goals to this extend : first it is overprotecting American companies ; second it is an implicit incentive to make Europe invest more on its abilities, and rely less on the American protection. It looks that the United States want to go back to a focus on economic development, which made its success in the XIXth century. For those reason it is possible to say that the return of inflation may be a trap and may lead to a durable weakening of European countries.
This crisis shows that Europe has to build a long run policy to play a major rolo in this century. But inflation is punishing a lack of long term policies which made us naïve actors of the globalization game. While China is investing in rare metals, built giants (the BATX), invested massively in education, Europe looks to be a poor player in this system. While it has the ability to compete, and is still today the first market in the world. Those approaches show also that it is necessary to build a real European green economy, which is an economy of the future. To this extend it is necessary to invest in high technologies, as innovation will be a major tool to instaure this social economy.
This approach is even more necessary as the weight of the Western world is diminishing in the globalization. Demography is clear with the fact that Asia will be more and more the economic center of the world. To this extend it is possible to say that building our independence is a necessary appraoch, which can be able to confront the challenges of the next y ears.
The observer 