The war in Ukraine is showing how economics looks to me more important than military power. The current failure of the attempts of Vladimir Putin to invade this country (the war is not over, but he had serious drawbacks) show that the political power of Russia is so far not competing with a European Union stronger to this extend.
Kant said that the first measure of power was money. Russia has not really retained the lesson. During the USSR it focused more on military might, nuclear power, but was not an economic strenght. However Putin wants to go back to the power of the Russian Empire. That is the reason why it is necessary for him to have an impact on these subjects. In my opinion the Chinese have a far smarter approach to confront the western world : focusing on economics and on science. The Russians prefer to focus on the military and political power. Anyway, as Mitterrand said in the Epinay congress in 1971, « politics is secondary ». The real power is economical.
That is the way the bourgeoisie overcame the aristocracy in the modern ages : first benefiting from a more mobiliar economy, and overpassing the feudal society. A declining aristocracy couldn’t sustain, in the long run, the power of the bourgeoisie which is holding the economical power. This approach has a parallel with the relations between Russia and China. During the Cold War Russia was the « big brother » compared to China, and today is doesn’t represent a lot compared the the Asian giant.
Those factors show that, in my opinion, the European Union had a good response focusing on economics. It is a very good factor to fight a power like Russia. Of course there will be retorsions, for instance about gas. But focusing on economics is important to win any war. For instance the Americans and the British bombed the German factories to win the Second World War, and it had a real impact on the outcome of the conflict. Today the approach is pretty similar. That is the reason why I am pretty optimistic concerning the outcome of the war with Ukraine. Much more, in the long run, than the potential invasion of Taiwan by China.
The observer 